Posted on October - 20 - 2009
The Democrats Super Tuesday
February 5th is Super Tuesday for both political parties, but let’s take a look at just the Democratic situation as we’re now just five days out. To win the Democratic nomination, a candidate must receive 2,023 delegate votes. Before we get to Super Tuesday, Hillary leads Obama with 232 to 158 (John Edwards has 62). So, what’s Super Tuesday look like currently?
Super Tuesday will put 1,681 votes in play! It’s a big deal!
If we look at the top 5 states out of the 22, there are nearly 1,000 votes up for grabs:
>California 370
>New York 232
>Illinois 153
>New Jersey 107
>Massachussets 93
So, let’s give Hillary the benefit of the doubt and since delegates are allocated based on percentage of vote, no one gets ALL the votes. If we give Hillary a 55-45% advantage in those five states that give Hillary a 523 to 432 advantage in those five and when you add that to the exisiting total, we come to a 755-590 Hillary advantage. Are yoiu tracking so far?
If we divide up the other 17 states on a 50-50 basis (which seems reasonable to me), come February 6th the delegate count stands at Hillary 1,118 and Obama 953. Now what? Both are still a long way from 2,025. The biggest prize left is Texas with 228 delegates. Split that 50-50 and the total is 1,232 to 1,067. Now we get down and dirty and into the real game called POLITICS!
It’s called Superdelegates! Only the Democrats do such an undemocratic thing.
The Democratic Party is often criticized during election cycles for conducting primary elections in a non-democratic fashion, since superdelegates are appointed by the party and are not obligated to support the candidate chosen by the voters. There have been repeated calls to eliminate the superdelegates from the primaries to more accurately reflect the popular vote.
There are approximately 800 Superdelegates (the final number won’t be official until March 1st). And we may really get a definition of a political hit-job when this fight heats up!
If they are split 60-40 (giving the establishment Clintons the benefit of the doubt) we come to a 1,712-1,387 Hillary advantage. Hillary is still more than 300 votes shy. Bottom line? This baby is going the distance. The states who waited until late in the game to have a primary will play a much bigger role. Pennsylvania with 98 on April 22 could be crucial. Indiana and North Carolina (rememebr that other state?) with more than 100 delegates combined on May 6th could be the difference.
God forbid that we have to wait until June 1st for Puerto Rico’s primary of 36 votes. 
ernie@lrchouston.com
